Thursday, 14 April 2011

The Birth Rate And How Immigration Is Keeping It Low or When A Better Life For You Means A Worse Life For The Rest Of Us.

A news piece from the Toronto Star informs us young adults are holding off home ownership. The reason: rising house prices are outpacing income growth.

As rising home prices continue to outpace income growth, many young Canadians have decided to delay home ownership for another year, according to a poll released Thursday by Royal Bank of Canada.

RBC’s annual home ownership poll found that 55 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 34 said it made sense to delay a home purchase until next year. That’s 10 percentage points more than the national average for all age groups.

Meanwhile, about half of the young people in the survey who had already delved into home ownership said their mortgage was eating up too much of their income — suggesting their peers may have good reason to wait.

As a consequence property taxes are rising sharply in concert with rising property values.

Immigration is the likely culprit. From the first linked article we read:

The national average home price rose 8.8 per cent year over year to a record $365,192 in February, although it was skewed upward by sales in the red hot Vancouver market where the average home price was $790,380.

From the third link we read:

Areas with average increases of more than 20% since last assessed: Mid-Toronto (C9, C10, C11, C12), The Beach (E2), Thornhill (N1), Markham (N10, N11), Richmond Hill (N3).

Vancouver home prices have skyrocketed beyond affordability due to an influx of capital from Asia from primarily Chinese immigrants who bring it with them. Thornhill, Markham, and Richmond Hill also have considerable Asian immigrant populations, mostly Chinese but increasingly some south Asian as well.

We know mass immigration has had a measurable negative influence on Canadian incomes due to the over supply of labour. We also know demand for housing increases prices. It appears mass immigration has delivered a one-two knock out punch for young Canadians looking to buy homes and start families.

Too often we look at immigration from the immigrant's point of view and rarely consider what effects it has on the host population. If home ownership is part of the Canadian dream then mass immigration is denying this to many Canadians, at least for time if not indefinitely. An immigrant's pursuit of a better life in Canada is translating into a worse life for us who live here.

This has dire consequences for the birth rate. Historically Canada has relied on a natural growth rate to grow its population. And this growth rate depended on a birth rate above replacement level. Immigration was just a complement to it. The fact that Canada has to rely on immigration to fuel population growth is a recent phenomenon and this should be sounding alarms. If population growth is a desired goal then this should be pursued "in house", so to speak, since immigration is costly in comparison and the returns on recent waves of immigrants has been diminishing. Besides, tax dollars should be invested in Canadians not importing and supporting foreign born populations who end up disrupting Canadians' standard of living.

Affordable housing in hand with rising incomes are key ingredients to those desirous to start and support families. This, in turn, grows the population and strengthens the nation. But immigration has proven to be an assault on both and thus contributes to a stubbornly low birth rate. That being the case mass immigration is not the solution it is being made out to be but is indeed part of the problem.


Anonymous said...

This is a very compelling argument.

Furthermore, this is the strongest evidence of why mass immigration even exists: "an influx of capital from Asia from primarily Chinese immigrants who bring it with them."

The Harper government, as we know, as done little to quell the number of immigrants. What Kenney HAS done is make it impossible for poor people in foreign countries to come here. A complaint was made by a blogger at a Canadian immigrant resource site that lower-income people are being told by embassies in foreign nations not to waste their money on immigration applications since, due to recent changes, they won't take you in if your overall wealth is not up to snuff. This means that, for the wealthy anyway, it is literally possible to buy your way into Canada. It's long been known that this is the case for the US. I believe that educational background is less important than purported income for immigrant applicants, at least under the Conservative government.

Anonymous said...